Sunday, 6 February 2011

The health care debate

As some of you probably know, I am a Canadian citizen and have lived most of my life in Canada. I moved to the United States about a year and half ago. I now live in St. Louis and am privileged to be working at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The Fed, incidentally, offers what I think is an excellent health benefits package. And so far, I have been mightily impressed with the health care services provided at Barnes Jewish Hospital. I am fortunate.

When I first moved here, I did not know too much about how health coverage worked in the U.S. Heck, I am still not entirely sure what to believe. I have some vague recollection of hearing stories about poor Americans being denied access to critical care, just because they could not afford it. I wonder whether this can possibly be true.

Here is an excerpt from Paul Krugman's piece "A Tale of Two Moralities:"
There’s no middle ground between these [conservative and liberal] views. One side saw health reform, with its subsidized extension of coverage to the uninsured, as fulfilling a moral imperative: wealthy nations, it believed, have an obligation to provide all their citizens with essential care. The other side saw the same reform as a moral outrage, an assault on the right of Americans to spend their money as they choose.
Wealthy nations, liberals believe, have an obligation to provide all their citizens with essential care. The implication, of course, is that the United States does not do so; at least, not prior to Obamacare. But is what Paul Krugman asserts true? (He is also asserting that conservatives, as a matter of their moral philosophy, do not believe that all citizens should be provided with essential care--an outright lie, of course--but a different matter that I do not wish to pursue here).

And here is Kevin Horrigan, a columnist in St. Louis with his article today: "A Commodity or a Right?"
Health care, regardless of its considerable effect on the economy and the national debt, is not just another consumer item. Like food and water, health care is a fundamental right. We don't let people starve or freeze to death in this country (usually), so why do we routinely let them suffer and die for lack of access to health care?
Again, I ask whether this last claim is factually correct? Do people in America routinely suffer and die for lack of access to health care?

Personally, I cannot say for sure one way or the other. My inclination is to doubt these claims (which is not to deny the existence of many other problems associated with healthcare). But the evidence supporting my view is mainly anecdotal.

When I first got to the bank, I became friends with one of the janitorial staff at the gym. We got to talking and I learned that she had at one time needed a lung operation. Evidently, she was poor and uninsured at the time. She is now healthly as a horse. I'll let you fill in the blanks.

Shortly after that, I attended a lecture by Steve Lipstein, CEO and president of Barnes Jewish Hospital (and Chairman of the Board of the St. Louis Fed). The talk, as far as I can remember, was largely devoted to espousing the virtues of the Obamacare legislation. In his talk, he made a remark that made my jaw drop to the table. He told the audience that Barnes-Jewish does not turn anyone way; they do not ask whether people have insurance...they do not even ask if they are American citizens. I would like to believe that this is true at all U.S. hospitals, but perhaps it is not.

So it seems to me, though I stand corrected if wrong, that the U.S. already has universal health care coverage. Of course, when the uninsured go for treatment, someone has to pay for it. That someone, it appears, is the rest of us who regularly make insurance premiums (this is another point made by Lipstein in his talk). In other words, the U.S. already has a system whereby the "rich" subsidize the insurance and health costs of the "poor."

Of course, recognizing this (if it is even true) is not the same thing as claiming that the current system is any good or in no need of reform. I found this article by Randall Hoven quite interesting: "A Conservative Case for Universal Health Coverage."

The impression I am forming is that the healthcare debate has more to do with insurance than it does with healthcare availability. It appears to be a quirk of the American system that health insurance is tied to your employer. So, if you lose your job, and suddenly become sick (afflicted by a pre-existing condition), you may suddenly find yourself uninsurable. You will still have access to healthcare, of course--that is not the issue (even if liberals like Krugman and Horrigan would like us to believe this to be the case). But if you have any assets, you will have to use these assets to pay for your healthcare. This can be a terrible hardship and, evidently, is a major cause of personal bankruptcies in the U.S. Of course, if you are poor, you have no assets and so this does not apply.

So I am wondering: Have I got this just about right? If I have missed the boat on this one, please set me straight.

Update: February 10, 2011
 
One of my readers sent me something that I thought was too good not to bring to the forefront here. The author goes by the name of "o.jeff," in case that means anything to you.

A Simple Health Care Financing System (by o.jeff)

* Each person is required to put 15% of his or her income into a health savings account.

* All health care spending comes from this account.

* If a charge to your health care account is larger than your balance, then your account balance goes negative. This is effectively a federal health care loan.

* When your account balance is negative, 20% of your income is deducted from your income until your account balance is positive again.

* The money in this account is your money. When you die, any positive balance is passed on in your estate. If you have a negative balance, your assets must first pay off any negative balance in your health care account.

* If you have insufficient assets to pay off your negative balance at death, then the balance is "written off."
Additional points:

* This program replaces all government health care programs, including Medicare and Medicaid. The taxes for these programs would be eliminated.

* Most employers would probably stop offering health insurance as a job benefit. This would free every private employer of this burden and the cost it levies on them. This makes U.S. businesses more competitive.

* The payment for health care services would be immediate and swift--like using a credit card at Wal-Mart. However, providers would be required to retain records about the transaction for a period of time to allow audits for fraud.

* All of the people who are presently employed in medical offices and hospitals to fight insurance companies could be repurposed into actually providing health care services. An enormous gain in productivity.

* People would largely be spending their own money, and thus, they will be more careful about how it is spent. (With today's third party payment of medical expenses, there is little reason for a person to try to spend less.)

* Doctors might get tired of answering the question "How much does this cost?" but the question will be coming from their patient, right in front of them, rather than some nameless guy at an insurance company.

* Cost shifting already happens when non-insured/indigent go to a hospital for treatment. This plan simply makes it very transparent. These people will carry a negative balance funded by all of us. The hospitals would not have to cost shift, and so their prices should become more reasonable immediately.

* The health savings account would be for legitimate health care spending only. Fraud would be very strictly punished--both on the side of the provider and consumer.

* Health care products and services typically covered by an employer-sponsored plan would be eligible.

* Dependents would be paid for out of their guardian's accounts.

* 15% would be a minimum. You could deduct more if you want.

* There would be a maximum account balance per dependent. For example, the maximum account balance might be $75,000 plus $25,000 per dependent. (When this limit is reached, no salary deduction would be required.)

* Funds would be deposited in FDIC/NCUA insured bank accounts. You would get to pick the institution. I would likely pick a local credit union.
Other points:

* I think we should probably include in this plan a sales tax on medical care and services to pay for indigent care (those who die with negative balance). This tax should cover whatever our generation is predicted to cost in indigent care. It might be 3-5%.

* Private health insurance would be largely eliminated. However, insurance companies might provide "negative balance" insurance. That is, when you die with a negative balance, the insurance would payoff your balance. This would avoid an asset sale when a spouse dies first, for example.

O.jeff concludes with this:

Singapore has a system similar to this. My novel contribution is the notion of a "negative balance" in the health saving account, which is effectively a government-provided loan for health care (displacing the insurance model we have today).

p.s. Those who have zero lifetime earnings would simply die with a negative balance (and no assets), which would be paid for via the sales tax levied on all medical care.

Friday, 4 February 2011

Time to short treasuries?

U.S. Treasuries over the last two years have served as sort of a safe-haven for investors (something that still has gold bugs scratching their heads).  But with the worst of the financial crisis over, and growing evidence of U.S. and world economic expansion, there is good reason to believe that long-term real interest rates are likely on the way up (reflecting the increasing world demand for investment).

Ceteris paribus, higher real rates also imply higher nominal rates. That's bad news for treasuries. And though the Fed has promised to keep inflation in check (around 2% per annum), the market might have different ideas concerning the Fed's willingness and/or ability to deliver on its promise. Market expectations of inflation appear to have risen lately. Via the Fisher relation, one would expect this to put further upward pressure on nominal interest rates. Again, this is bad news for treasuries.

Note that I am not personally making any forecast about where interest rates are likely to go in the future. All I want to say is that IF you believe nominal interest rates are likely to continue their way upward, you may want to play this by shorting U.S. treasuries. And an easy way to do this is to go long on the Proshares Ultrashort 20+ Treasury ETF; see recent performance below (on Canadian exchanges, try ticker symbol HTD).



What could go wrong with this trade? Well, the fact remains that U.S. treasuries are likely to retain their role as a safe-haven instrument, at least for the near future. So, surprise events in sovereign debt markets, for example, may very well make TBT tumble again. And then there's the Middle East...what could possibly go wrong there?

Wednesday, 2 February 2011

Is gold money?

You've seen the advertisements on TV. They come in two forms:

[1] We will buy your gold!!!
[2] We will sell you gold !!!

Ad type [1] argues that with gold prices at an all time high, now is a good time to cash out of your inventory of gold (jewelry, coins, etc.). All you have to do is put your gold in an envelope and mail it to them; they will mail you back cash. They promise to reverse the transaction if you are not happy.

Ad type [2] argues that with gold prices going higher, now is a good time to turn your cash into gold. This type of ad typically stresses the virtue of gold as money, something that will retain its value even as the world comes to an end.

Maybe the rational-agent hypothesis is indeed taking things a step too far.

Let us settle on a (loose) definition of money. Let me say that money is an object that circulates widely as a means of payment. This is to say, money is liquid; it is not discounted (severely, at least) in quid-pro-quo trades. Something like that.

In today's world, gold (whatever form it may take) is not liquid. Try paying for your morning coffee with bullion and be prepare to be astounded at the discount you are offered (on your gold, not the coffee!).

In ad type [1], people are trying to buy your gold...that is, buy it with cash (money). This ad appeals to people who want cash now. They want to buy things, now. So, if gold is money, why don't they just use the gold to buy the things they want now? Answer: gold is not money.

In ad type [2], people are trying to buy your money...that is, buy it with gold. If gold is in fact money, why would they want to sell it for paper? This ad appeals to people who want to make provisions for the end of the world. When society collapses, no one will want to hold fiat money; but everyone will hunger for gold.

These people are delusional. Think of  Mad Max. People will hunger for food, water, and fuel -- not gold. Which is to say, not only is gold not money in a disaster scenario -- it is not even wealth!

I wonder whether the people who fall for ad type [2] ever ask themselves why these prognosticators of future financial turmoil appear so willing to buy their paper money for gold? Yep, they must be mighty fine folks to be willing to dispose of their gold supplies in exchange for your fiat paper.

So there you have my little rant of the day. But I am snowed in. And maybe watching too much TV (CNBC -- First in Business Worldwide).

PS. Subsequently came across this related link: Is Gold Money?

Tuesday, 1 February 2011

Don't do it for us. Do it for Canada.

The backdrop here is Bill C-32, an Act to amend the Canadian Copyright Act. The bill would criminalise the act of circumventing, or making available to the public the ability to circumvent, digital rights management software locks. In short, the bill is basically designed to strengthen property rights over intellectual property.

Contrary to what many may think, the economic argument for these laws is not as strong as one might imagine. For those interested in understanding why, please refer to this fine blog by Michele Boldrin and David Levine: Against Monopoly. In Canada, we have Michael Geist offering good arguments against certain aspects of C-32.

But the purpose of this post is not to debate C-32. What I want to show you is this: a letter recently published in a major Canadian newspaper, written on behalf of a group of "concerned Canadian authors." Despite C-32's attempt to strengthen copyright law, these authors evidently do not think it goes far enough. The reason for this is because C-32 may allow for some degree of fair use. (For related commentary, see Meera Nair's interesting blog: Fair Duty).

Fair use. Oh, the horror. Oh, the hypocrisy. (They evidently have zero concept of how their own creative works have been built on the shoulders of free social capital.)

Anyway, take a look at the letter. Who did they employ to write it? I mean, it's one thing to state one's objections to a pending legislation; I have no problem with this. But the tone...the language...my goodness...it reads as if it were written by a petulant child (and this is perhaps giving them too much credit, as I think the maturity level in most children exceeds that which is displayed in this letter).

But what really got me was the concluding statement.

Pathetic. Truly pathetic.

Wednesday, 26 January 2011

Binky Chadha: Non-investors are overweight stocks

With the Dow closing near 12,000 today, I thought I'd peruse the CNBC (First in Business Worldwide) webpage to see what analysts were talking about. I'm not sure why I do this...I am almost always left scratching my head afteward. A deficiency on my part, no doubt. Maybe some of you out there can lend me a hand.

Take this, for example. Here is a CNBC segment entitled "Pick a Pro's Brain," a short interview with Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha labeled "Investors Are 'Very Underweight' Stocks." The entire interview sounds like gibberish to me. The man is speaking in a language that I trouble understanding.

What does it mean, in particular, for investors to be underweight stocks?

I think we can all agree that the outstanding stock of equity shares is owned...by someone, at least. It is therefore impossible for the population as a whole to be under or overweight in stocks. It is only possible for different groups holding different positions to be considered  under or overweight.

Now take the set of potential owners. It appears that this set can be divided into two subsets: investors and non-investors. I'm am not entirely sure what governs this division.

In any case, the claim is that investors are underweight stocks. Fine. But simple arithmetic then implies that non-investors must be overweight stocks.

So I am wondering: Is this, in fact, what Binky is saying? And if it is indeed what he is saying, then why is knowing this interesting, and how is knowing this important?

Wednesday, 19 January 2011

Holier than thou

Took a bit of a break from blogging lately. (I do have a day job, after all.) Unfortunately, I peeked into the blogosphere. Couldn't help it. Big mistake!

Exhausted by economic analysis, Paul Krugman has decided to stump from another pulpit these days. See here: A Tale of Two Moralities (via interfluidity).

Ah, the moral high ground...how intoxicating!  The conscience of a liberal...I am reminded of Gordon Liddy's gem:
A liberal is someone who feels a great debt to his fellow man, a debt which he proposes to pay off with your money.
According to Krugman, there is a "great divide" in America today. What defines this boundary?
One side of American politics considers the modern welfare state — a private-enterprise economy, but one in which society’s winners are taxed to pay for a social safety net — morally superior to the capitalism red in tooth and claw we had before the New Deal. It’s only right, this side believes, for the affluent to help the less fortunate.
The other side believes that people have a right to keep what they earn, and that taxing them to support others, no matter how needy, amounts to theft. That’s what lies behind the modern right’s fondness for violent rhetoric: many activists on the right really do see taxes and regulation as tyrannical impositions on their liberty.
There’s no middle ground between these views.  
Is this really an accurate characterization? To me, the divide seems to be defined more over the issue of who (or what body of institutions) should be trusted with the job of redistributing wealth. On the left, we have those who believe that a central authority is best suited for this job. On the right, we have those who believe that local governments, or private philanthropic institutions, are better suited for this job.

I do not believe that those with a libertarian streak (like myself) appreciate being demonized for, say, opposing a tax hike by the central government. I might oppose such a tax and at the same time favor a tax hike at the state or local level (if I thought the funds are to be put to good use). I might be against a tax hike altogether, and be in favor of redistributing existing government expenditures away from the military and to the disadvantaged. Or, I might just want to keep more of my money so that I have greater control over how to disburse it among competing charities. The "liberal" attempt to construe any of these positions as "immoral" along some dimension is, well, simply shameful, I think.

Friday, 14 January 2011

AIG Repays the Fed

New York Fed Ends AIG Assistance with Full Repayment
For release at 12:25 p.m. EST on January 14, 2011

NEW YORK – The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (“New York Fed”) today announced the termination of its assistance to American International Group, Inc. (“AIG”) and the full repayment of its loans to AIG as a result of the closing of the recapitalization that was announced on September 30, 2010. As of today, AIG will no longer have any outstanding obligations to the New York Fed.

Today’s closing represents a substantial step toward achieving the Federal Reserve’s dual goals of stabilizing AIG and ensuring its repayment of government assistance. It reflects the significant progress AIG has made in reducing the scope, risk and complexity of its operations and stabilizing its operating results. The accelerated repayment of the New York Fed frees up collateral that will enable the company to access private debt markets, an essential step toward facilitating the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s future sale of the common stock it owns.

"This concludes an important effort by the Federal Reserve to stabilize the financial system in order to protect the U.S. economy" said William C. Dudley, President of the New York Fed.

With today’s closing of the recapitalization, the New York Fed’s revolving credit facility has been fully repaid, including interest and fees, and its commitment to lend any further funds has been terminated ahead of the credit facility’s scheduled expiration in September 2013.

In addition, the New York Fed has been paid in full for its preferred interests in the AIA and ALICO special purpose vehicles. A portion of those interests has been redeemed with proceeds from AIG’s sale of ALICO to MetLife, Inc. The remaining interests have been purchased by AIG through a draw on the Treasury Department’s Series F preferred stock commitment and transferred to the Treasury Department.

The closing of AIG’s recapitalization also marks the termination of the AIG Credit Facility Trust, which was established to hold an approximately 79 percent controlling equity interest in AIG for the sole benefit of the U.S. Treasury, the general fund of the U.S. government. The Trust’s equity interest in AIG is being exchanged for common stock of AIG and transferred to the Treasury.

“We are grateful to Jill M. Considine, Chester B. Feldberg, Peter A. Langerman, and Douglas L. Foshee for their invaluable contributions and commitment to the execution of their responsibilities as Trustees,” Mr. Dudley added.

About the Federal Reserve’s actions related to AIG

In September 2008, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System authorized the New York Fed to provide AIG with an emergency loan of up to $85 billion to prevent its disorderly collapse, which could have had catastrophic consequences to the U.S. economy during the most damaging financial crisis in 70 years. The assistance provided by the Federal Reserve was restructured over time, and was supplemented in November 2008 and April 2009 by additional financial assistance from the Treasury Department under the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

As part of the November 2008 restructuring of the government’s assistance to AIG, two special purpose vehicles, Maiden Lane II LLC and Maiden Lane III LLC, were created with loans from the New York Fed to purchase various mortgage-related securities in order to address AIG’s capital and liquidity strains. The loans extended by the New York Fed to the Maiden Lane II and III facilities remain outstanding and are being repaid from the assets in those facilities. The fair values of the portfolios well exceed the balances of those loans.